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Many strategists are cautioning about US political risk this year, so much so that the Eurasia Group’s Ian Bremmer lists November’s US midterm elections as one of the biggest global geopolitical threats in his 2022 outlook.
The midterms will be “one of the most important in US history”, says Bremmer. If the Democrats lose (as looks likely), they will blame it on suppression of minority voters and partisan redistricting.
If Republicans underperform, they will cry fraud. If they win, they will see it as evidence the 2020 race was stolen from them. Either way, millions will view the elections as rigged.
More important is what the midterms mean for the 2024 presidential election. If Donald Trump runs, he will either win the election or try to steal it. A Trump victory would bring weakened federal bureaucracy, mass civil disobedience and a return to his “erratic, isolationist foreign policy”.
A Trump loss could be even worse, leaving the US with an election that’s either “broken” or “stolen”, potentially resulting in domestic terrorism, calls for secession, a “structurally dysfunctional” federal government, and more.
All this is speculative but not alarmist. Bremmer’s warning that the midterms represent a “historic tipping point” is all too plausible.