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A new draft of the deal that could be agreed at the Glasgow Cop26 climate talks appears to have watered down its push to curb fossil fuels.
The first draft of the “cover decision” for the overarching agreement at the summit called for countries “to accelerate the phasing-out of coal and subsidies for fossil fuels”.
In a new draft produced on Friday morning, that has changed to calling on countries to accelerate the shift to clean energy systems, “including by rapidly scaling up clean power generation and accelerating the phase-out of unabated coal power and of inefficient subsidies for fossil fuels”.
The inclusion of a reference to fossil fuels was a first for a United Nations decision document of this type but was expected to get fierce pushback from some countries – and still may not survive to the final text.
Talks went on through the night and look set to over-run from their finish time of Friday evening as negotiators come under pressure to resolve issues around finance for poor countries, fossil fuels, the efforts of countries to cut emissions in the 2020s and rules on carbon markets and transparency.
The latest draft appears to have strengthened language on getting countries to “revisit and strengthen the 2030 targets” in their national action plans by the end of 2022 to align with global goals to limit temperature rises to “well below” two degrees and try to limit them to 1.5 degrees.
The new version “requests” countries do so, compared with the previous version which “urges” them to do so.
Michael Jacobs, former climate adviser to Gordon Brown and veteran of Cop talks, said UK, European Union and UNFCCC lawyers were saying that “requests” was stronger language than “urges”.
He said: “I see this as a strengthening of the language which effectively means countries are being told to come back next year with nationally determined contributions aligned to the 1.5-degrees temperature goal.”
Scientists have warned that keeping temperature rises to 1.5 degrees – beyond which the worst impacts of climate change will be felt – requires global emissions to be cut by 45 per cent by 2030, and to zero overall by mid-century.
But current action plans, known as nationally determined contributions, for emissions cuts up to 2030 leave the world well off track to meet the goal, and could see warming of 2.4 degrees over the long term.
So countries are under pressure to rapidly increase their ambition for emission cuts in the 2020s to stop the 1.5-degrees goal slipping out of reach.
There is now a date – missing from the first draft – for when developed countries should double the provision of finance to help developing countries adapt to climate change – by 2025.
Providing finance for developing countries to develop cleanly, adapt to the impacts of climate change and address the loss and damage to people, livelihoods, land and infrastructure already being hit by increasing weather extremes and rising seas is also key to securing a deal in Glasgow.
‘Inching forward’
First minister of Scotland Nicola Sturgeon said she has not had a chance to properly absorb the new draft but, from what she has seen, she would describe it as “inching forward”, adding that there is time to improve it.
Ms Sturgeon said there has been some “incremental progress”, telling Sky News: “If I was a young person looking into this summit right now I would say it’s not good enough.
“There may have been inches forward in this latest draft but there’s still time to get it even further forward and to really make the Glasgow Agreement one that lives up to the urgency of the emergency we face.”
She added: “In these final hours, the [British] prime minister if necessary should come back here and drive this deal over the line.”
Asked if she was calling for Boris Johnson to come to Glasgow, Ms Sturgeon said: “If that is what it is going to take, then yes. He was here on Wednesday, I welcomed that. In his shoes, I may have stayed here for the remainder of the summit, but come back . . . every shoulder to the wheel.
“I’m not in the negotiating room. That can feel frustrating sometimes. But get there, and make sure that no stone is left unturned in getting this agreement to where it needs to be.”
Ms Sturgeon said she would not bet on Friday being the last day of Cop26.
“I certainly hope that finishing at six o’clock tonight, which is the plan, would be possible,” she told Sky News. “Equally, I would not be surprised to know that it was going into tomorrow. That’s not unusual at Cop, so nobody should read anything particular into that if it does happen.” – PA