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Nine in 10 people in Ireland would have to be vaccinated to reach “herd immunity” against Covid-19 because of mutant strains, meaning children would have to get the jab, the Health Service Executive has suggested.
Last year’s prediction that inoculating just six in ten of the population against coronavirus could provide wider protection for society was based on the less transmissible “wild type” original strain, said Colm Henry, HSE chief clinical officer.
The National Immunisation Advisory Committee (Niac) will have to weigh up the benefits of mass administering children in Ireland with jabs against any potential threat to them from the vaccine itself, he said.
“This is a challenge being faced across the world,” he said at the HSE weekly Covid 19 briefing.
“What we thought initially, based on much cruder estimates a year ago, based on the wild type Covid we were dealing with last year, it was 60 to 70 per cent of the population [that would reach herd immunity].
“But because we are dealing with a much more transmissible variant, to reach that concept of herd immunity , which every country is far away from yet, the estimate has gone up to 85 to 90 per cent.”
The concept of herd immunity suggests when enough people in a population are either vaccinated against a disease or have developed natural resistance through infection then it stems its spread.
If Ireland were to reach herd immunity through vaccination alone, Mr Henry said “by extension it would include the population (to be vaccinated) extending to children.”
“In advising vaccination for children, Niac like other agencies across Europe and the world have to consider the relative risks and benefits for children, for whom Covid 19 presents a very low risk in terms of serious illness, hospitalisation, ICU and death,” he added.
Mr Henry said a balance would need to be considered between “what is a very low risk” to children from being infected by the virus “against any risks the vaccine may have in younger age groups”.
Different approaches
The US and the UK have differed in their approaches.
Authorities in the US recommend children over the age of 12 be vaccinated, and steps are already being taken to give children under 12 jabs by mid-winter.
In the UK this week, it was decided to only offer children over 12 a vaccine if they are at higher risk through underlying conditions or if they are living with someone who is at higher risk of serious illness through infection.
Mr Henry said he doesn’t expect Niac to immediately “come out with emphatic recommendations” for younger children in Ireland as it was currently assessing whether to recommend jabs for 12- to 15-year-olds.
Advice for children younger than 12 is “going to be much more complicated”, he said.
On whether Ireland can reach herd immunity without vaccinating children, he said “to to reach that critical proportion, it would infer we would need to include age groups going right down to children, but that’s based on the current estimate of herd immunity that might be required to deal with the increased transmissibility of Delta [variant].”
Niac would have to review the “real world evidence” before making any recommendations to the HSE and the Department of Health, he said.
Hospitalisations
According to figures published by the HSE on Thursday morning, there are 18 people in hospital with Covid-19 who are fully vaccinated against the virus.
A total of 86 people are in hospital with the virus, as of 8pm on Wednesday with 22 patients in intensive care (ICU).
Letterkenny Hospital has the highest number of Covid-19 patients (12), followed by Mayo University Hospital (9) and St James’s Hospital in Dublin (8).
The HSE data shows there are 18 patients with Covid-19 who are fully vaccinated as of 8am on Wednesday. Galway University has the highest number of fully vaccinated patients (4), followed by Letterkenny Hospital (3).
It did not provide details on which vaccines these patients had received.
More than 5.3 million Covid-19 vaccines have been administered to date, with 66 per cent of adults now fully vaccinated against Covid-19 and 80 per cent partially, HSE chief executive Paul Reid said on Thursday.
“Delta poses a huge risk to this progress but one that we can meet head on. Let’s aim to support our healthcare workers having a manageable August. One that they all deserve,” Mr Reid said on Twitter.
‘Significant increases’
A further 1,378 cases of Covid-19 were confirmed in the State on Wednesday. Tánaiste Leo Varadkar said the Delta wave of coronavirus could peak at 4,000 cases a day.
Deputy chief medical officer Dr Ronan Glynn has warned of a “significant increase” in hospitalisations and intensive care admissions if incidence of Covid-19 continues to rise.
Dr Glynn said the 14-day incidence rate has increased from 93 per 100,000 in the week of June 24th to 246 per 100,000 on Wednesday.
He said the five-day moving average of cases has increased from 300 to 1,182 cases per day over the same period.
The latest estimate of the growth rate of new cases is approximately 6 per cent to 7 per cent per day.
According to Dr Glynn, incidence is highest and increasing rapidly in those aged 19-24 and 16-18, though it is also rising in other age groups.