Who is popular today?

Labour Party Senator Ivana Bacik is set to comfortably top the poll and win the Dublin Bay South byelection based on the first counts.
In the initial tallies Ms Bacik took 30.3 per cent, followed by Fine Gael Councillor James Geoghegan on 26.2 per cent and Sinn Féin Senator Lynn Boylan on 15.89 per cent. Fianna Fáil’s Deirdre Conroy was a distant fifth, behind Green Party Councillor Claire Byrne.
While votes have not yet been formally counted at the RDS Simmonscourt, the tallies are seen as highly accurate and the result will be a big disappointment for the two biggest Government parties.
The result is a setback for Tánaiste Leo Varadkar as Fine Gael had expectations of holding on to the seat left vacant after the resignation of former Fine Gael TD Eoghan Murphy.
Fianna Fáil knew victory was unlikely but had hoped their candidate would poll a reasonable 10 per cent. Based on tallies, she took less than half that at 4.8 per cent.
Labour had hoped to come in second on the first count with Mr Geoghegan topping the poll, and catch up with their transfer-friendly candidate.
Labour director of elections Duncan Smith said voters in the constituency recognised the work Senator Bacik had done over the years.
She has a 30-year record of social justice campaigning and activism. “People in this constituency like their TDs to step on to the national stage and make a difference,” he said.
Ms Byrne had 7.9 per cent on the tallies but it was a poor performance for the Social Democrats with Sarah Durcan on 3.1 per cent while Independent Cllr Mannix Flynn had a tally of 3.2 per cent.
High-profile campaigns
Turnout is unlikely to top 40 per cent despite substantial and high-profile campaigns mounted by the leading parties, including a flurry of activity during polling day on Thursday involving hundreds of party volunteers.
Leading constituency figures from the political parties say the number of voters will be substantially below the 54 per cent who voted in the General Election in January 2020.
Turnouts in byelections tend to be significantly lower than general elections.
This is a byelection like no other as Covid-19 public health restrictions kick in and cut a swathe through the tally count.
Just 25 per cent of the usual number of people involved in the tally will be allowed into the count centre because of Covid rules.
In last week’s Irish Times poll, Mr Geoghegan had 27 per cent compared with 22 per cent for Ms Bacik and 13 per cent for Ms Boylan, changing the narrative of the race which had previously centred around Mr Geoghegan and Ms Boylan.
The constituency stretches from south inner city out to Ringsend, Sandymount, Ballsbridge out to Donnybrook, up to Ranelagh, Rathmines and over to Terenure and Kimmage.
Dublin Bay South is seen as a Fine Gael bastion which held two seats until the 2020 general election when it dropped to one.