Who is popular today?

Counting in the Dublin Bay South byelection is under way at the RDS Simmonscourt.
Turnout is unlikely to top 40 per cent despite substantial and high-profile campaigns mounted by the leading parties, including a flurry of activity during polling day on Thursday involving hundreds of party volunteers.
Leading constituency figures from the political parties say the number of voters will be substantially below the 54 per cent who voted in the General Election in January 2020.
Most were of the opinion, as of Thursday evening, that it might be in the mid-30s in percentage terms. Turnouts in byelections tend to be significantly lower than general elections.
Strategists predict that the winner of the Dublin Bay South byelection will be decided on a few hundred transfers.
At about 9am, boxes were opened and the tallymen and women began the task of counting ballots inside 105 boxes from 26 polling stations across the constituency. One additional box carrying postal votes is also in play.
Experts at those tallies believe the second preferences will give the best indication of a likely winner in the 15 candidate race, because this will begin to signal where transfers are going in the contest.
And the top three contenders are Fine Gael Councillor James Geoghegan, Labour Senator Ivana Bacik and Sinn Féin Senator Lynn Boylan in the contest to fill the vacancy that arose following the resignation of former minister for housing Eoghan Murphy.
But this is a byelection like no other as Covid-19 public health restrictions kick in and cut a swathe through the tally count.
Just 25 per cent of the usual number of people involved in the tally will be allowed into the count centre because of Covid rules.
The four main parties, Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, Sinn Féin and Labour are co-operating to run the numbers.
The boxes will be open 36 at a time and one person will tally each box. Normally there are two people for each half of a box, four to a box, with one calling the numbers and the other marking it down.
This time one person will have to watch where all votes are going and capture that on paper for every vote in a ballot box.
There have been tensions over a call that all tally people should leave the RDS once the tally of the first count has been done, a move the parties are resisting, insisting that they need to observe second count transfers for more detailed numbers.
But the experts are hopeful that if the count staff count the papers slowly enough to catch the tallies the predictions will be more accurate and that in turn will reduce the chances of challenges and recounts.
Strategists have argued that to get a relatively accurate answer in predicting outcome the election there has to be a mix of boxes with a majority coming from the inner city and a few suburban boxes.
In last week’s Irish Times poll Mr Geoghegan had 27 per cent compared with 22 per cent for Ms Bacik and 13 per cent for Ms Boylan, changing the narrative of the race which had previously centred around Mr Geoghegan and Ms Boylan.
It is now being seen as a race between Fine Gael and Labour but Ms Boylan is expected to swoop up a significant first preference vote and has bucked the overall low turnout trend with a higher than expected turnout in her stronghold areas in the south inner city.
Dublin Bay South is not known for high turnouts and in the general election 49.35 per cent of voters in this constituency, seen as one of the wealthiest in the State, turned out to cast their ballot. This time around turnout is seen to be somewhere in the mid to high 30s.
The constituency stretches from south inner city out to Ringsend, Sandymount, Ballsbridge out to Donnybrook, up to Ranelagh, Rathmines and over to Terenure and Kimmage.
Dublin Bay South is seen as a Fine Gael bastion which held two seats until the 2020 general election when it dropped to one.
Governments tend to lose byelections. This race will be seen as a real test for Tánaiste Leo Varadkar as Fine Gael leader and second in command in Government. It would be a bitter blow to the party to lose its only seat in an erstwhile party bastion.
For some it will also be seen as a judgment on Fianna Fáil’s ranking in Government although others point out that there is only one Fianna Fáil seat in the constituency and Jim O’Callaghan, Cllr Deirdre Conroy’s director of elections, has it. Ms Conroy is predicted to do somewhat better than the 10 per cent of the first preference vote.
Labour has languished in the polls nationally but Ms Bacik’s high rating is seen as a personal vote, but also a reflection of loyalty to former leader Ruairi Quinn who retired in the 2016 general election, and his party colleague former TD and senator Kevin Humphreys.
Some constituency observers believe that in a field of strong, liberal female candidates female Fine Gael members may have gone for Ms Bacik in the byelection, a move they would not consider in a general election.
If she wins the seat it will also be a major boost for her party and its leader Alan Kelly.
Sinn Féin’s brand was really strong in 2020 nationally and the party has a seat in a constituency where it would not be strong, but the base may not be strong enough to pull off what would be a truly major upset for Fine Gael.
Election watchers have predicted Mr Geoghegan will need to be above 30 per cent with first preferences to stay ahead of Ms Bacik, while if she stays at 22 per cent or slightly above she is right in contention and is expected to pick up good transfers from strong, liberal opposition female candidates.
Green Party Councillor Claire Byrne has performed very well during the campaign and in a constituency where green issues are prevalent including the controversial cycle path planned to turn Strand Road in Sandymount into a one-way system. An ally of party leader Eamon Ryan she is viewed as “one to watch” for future elections.