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After the Government this week announced a five-week extension of the Level 5 lockdown, it was only a matter of time before people started asking: when will this thing be lifted?
As we come to the end of what must surely be the longest pandemic month yet, in desperate need of some good news, the answer to that question comes laden with caveats.
Yet in the spirit of learning from yesterday, living for today and hoping for tomorrow, all indications point towards a possible easing of restrictions from March 5th.
At a meeting of the Fine Gael parliamentary party last night, Tánaiste Leo Varadkar said Ireland could move into either Level 4 or Level 4 with modifications from that date in spring.
The main gist of Level 4 is that schools and childcare stay open, while people can travel around their county. One of the most recent iterations of Level 4 has seen outdoor dining for a maximum of 15 people available, and yet no one in hospitality expects this at the moment.
Sources have said the finer details for any easing are still to be worked out, but as the framework currently stands, it would also still mean no household visits.
At the same time, many members of Cabinet privately say they believe Covid-19 case numbers will “collapse” by the end of February.
Members of the State’s public health team are a lot more circumspect. They believe the level of compliance with stay-at-home orders will erode as the weeks tick onward and the evenings get brighter.
Whatever happens, come spring, the Government will need a strategy that extends beyond simply hoping for more vaccines. If there is an easing of restrictions and cases shoot up, what then?
As we report in our lead story today, Taoiseach Micheál Martin told a Fianna Fáil meeting last night the Government strategy is to get “prolonged suppression of the virus”. He is understood to have said: “we need to keep the pressure on the virus and do what it takes to keep the virus down.” This could indicate an extremely slow easing out of restrictions in tandem with a vaccine campaign that will ramp up from April onwards if all goes to plan.
The aim is, as it has been from day one, to “take the pressure off frontline workers, our hospitals and our nursing homes,” Martin said last night.
Half of health workers have received the vaccine, and the rest are being prioritised along with the next cohort incorporating the over-70s, in line with the sequencing plan.
The first 100 minutes of Dáil business today will be taken up with further questions on the vaccine rollout, so expect to hear a bit more detail on what we can expect there. And speaking on the Tonight Show last night, Mr Varadkar also said he anticipates the country will be at the point sometime in June or July where there will be “open access” to vaccines.
But back to the great question of when will there be a return to something even vaguely resembling normal? Again, in the words of the Taoiseach last night: “the country will reopen in time”.
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Naomi O’Leary’s Europe Letter is essential reading today on the conflict between the European Union and the United Kingdom on key coronavirus vaccines.
The newest recruit to the Irish Times political team, Cormac McQuinn, has been hitting the phones to find out what happened during last night’s parliamentary party meetings.
Playbook
In the Dáil, most of the day will be taken up with Covid-19 questions and debates. Minister for Health Stephen Donnelly will take questions on the vaccination drive starting at 10am. No doubt TDs will be keen to grill him on any revised timetables for when the population can expect to be inoculated given recent supply issues.
Leaders’ Questions will happen at noon, as is usual on Thursdays, followed by questions on promised legislation. Minister for Social Protection Heather Humphreys will take questions on Covid-19 supports after lunch.
Minister for Housing Darragh O’Brien will be in to talk about (yes, you guessed it) the coronavirus in the afternoon, and the Dáil adjourns for another week at 6.22pm.
The Seanad will resume next Monday, and four committees will meet online and in private ahead of full hearings tomorrow. As part of that schedule tomorrow the health committee will hear from the Covid-19 vaccination taskforce, which will be well worth tuning into.
Meanwhile the Irish Times Winter Nights Festival continues online tonight: we will have Taoiseach Micheál Martin on with us at 7.45pm to discuss leading the country through a pandemic. Feel free to send any questions in via Twitter making sure to use the #ITWinterNights hashtag.