The UK used a formula to predict students’ scores for canceled exams. Guess who did well.
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Every spring, British students take their A-level exams, which are used to determine admission into college.
But this year was different. With the Covid-19 pandemic still raging, spring’s A-levels were canceled. Instead, the government took an unorthodox — and controversial — approach to assessing admissions without those exam scores: It tried to use a mathematical rule to predict how the students would have done on their exams and then use those estimates as a stand-in for actual scores.
The approach the government took was fairly simple. It wanted to guess how well a student would have done if they …
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