Who is popular today?

Two-thirds of the party will have already made up their minds. But Keir Starmer and Rebecca Long-Bailey have to persuade the remaining third
To understand where the Labour party’s leadership contest is heading, it’s important to understand who the members are. It’s not an exact science, but they can be roughly divided into three parts. One-third will vote for whoever they perceive as the leftwing candidate, another third will vote for whoever isn’t the leftwing candidate, and then there’s the remaining third. It’s these swing voters who will decide the winner. They overwhelmingly backed Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership, believed in his general vision, are traumatised by Labour’s crushing defeat, and want to reconcile their principles with achieving power. It’s this faction that is driving Keir Starmer’s current lead in CLP nominations and polling. The shadow Brexit secretary’s campaign has succeeded in convincing the membership that under his leadership the party would not significantly depart from their core beliefs. Indeed, those who feel more aligned to Rebecca Long-Bailey feel that he is sufficiently similar to her in policy and principle to allow them to vote for the more “electable” Starmer.
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