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Brexit has injected uncertainty into the mix and all the ingredients are in place for an interest-rate cut
Don’t lose sight of the big picture, advised Mark Carney. Quite right. None of the highlights from the governor of the Bank of England’s trot around the block could be described as encouraging. The economic weather has worsened alarmingly during 2019.
Global growth has decelerated from 4% to 2.9% in the past two years. Global trade has been falling for about a year and looks weak for some time yet amid worries about trade wars and protectionism. As for the UK, the economy is growing at half its recent pace, and business investment has contracted in the five of the past six quarters. Meanwhile, the latest UK employment growth figures were the weakest since 2015 and the brief mini-boom in pay deals looks to be fizzling out. Continue reading...