Who is popular today?

Jo Swinson’s offer is just to permanently polarise the electorate around Brexit. The Lib Dems still have no distinctive pitch for issues beyond leaving the EU
Do gamblers know something that pollsters do not? Ever since the Liberal Democrats’ record European election result and the arrival of their new leader, Jo Swinson, there’s been a spring in their step. Polls show the Lib Dems nipping at Labour’s heels. A victory in the Brecon and Radnorshire byelection and then the defection of half a dozen MPs from rivals in recent weeks has helped to attract a record membership. The party is now hoping to be swollen by an influx of radicalised remainers, attracted by the party’s decision to change its approach to Brexit. Lib Dems no longer want a second Brexit referendum; instead they would simply revoke article 50 without a public vote. This policy will only become law if the Lib Dems win a parliamentary majority, a possibility which the betting markets think has as little as a 5% chance. The party appears not to be serious about power, offering an empty pledge that is impossible to redeem.
Ms Swinson’s wager appears to be that she is right and the punters are wrong. In the Brexit referendum there was a tendency to underestimate the appeal of leave, and the Lib Dems think Westminster is now ignoring the latent remain vote. It is true that a petition supporting the revocation of article 50, which would stop Brexit in its tracks, attracted more than 6m signatures. It is also the case that Brexit is likely to feature as a big issue in the next general election, and the Lib Dems see an advantage in carving a niche out of make-it-stop politics. Continue reading...